Supply reductions, export restrictions, and expectations for hog returns in a potential classical swine fever outbreak in the United States
Philip L. Paarlberg, PhD; Ann Hillberg Seitzinger, PhD; John G. Lee, PhD; Kenneth H. Mathews, Jr, PhD
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An economic model of pork, swine, and related markets examines effects of hypothetical classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks in the United States. Equations determine deviations in endogenous variables from observed supply and demand values. The analysis assumes 11 million US hogs are destroyed. Live swine and pork exports are stopped during the outbreak, with full recovery. Pork demand by US consumers is assumed to fall by 1% during the outbreaks, with a gradual recovery. Hog growers adjust expectations of future prices on the basis of current market conditions. One potential CSF outbreak reflects losses in the hog population skewed towards grower and finisher swine, while another outbreak has stronger effects on breeding inventory and the pig crop. The largest effects occur in pork and swine. Effects on other sectors are small. Over 20 quarters, the pork industry returns lose $4 billion. Losses for hogs, including the value of animals destroyed, range from $2.6 billion to $4.1 billion. An assumption of unchanged hog-grower expectations for returns is compared to that when expectations adjust. Unchanged expectations alter the pattern of slaughter and prices because breeding inventory falls less, thus more hogs are available for sale after Quarter 7.
Keywords: classical swine fever, economic impacts, pork, trade, CSF
Cite as: Paarlberg PL, Hillberg Seitzinger A, Lee JG, et al. Supply reductions, export restrictions, and expectations for hog returns in a potential classical swine fever outbreak in the United States. J Swine Health Prod 2009;17(3):155-162.
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